‘Vision 2030’ without benchmarks is nothing but empty rhetoric, President Mnangagwa

When President Emmerson Mnangagwa and his administration proclaim that Zimbabwe is on course to becoming an “upper middle-income economy by 2030,” one cannot help but wonder: by what benchmarks are they measuring this progress?

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What indicators are being used to convince the nation that in just five years’ time, a country that is barely surviving today will somehow leap into a new era of prosperity?

A former post-independence cabinet minister and dear friend of mine reminded me of something sobering this morning.

When we were discussing my recent trip to Kenya to attend the 2025 Africa Liberty Forum and the George Ayittey Society Annual Meeting, he recalled that decades ago, Zimbabwe had the larger and stronger economy.

He recalled that when he first began visiting Kenya decades ago, Zimbabwe had the larger and stronger economy.

Yet today, while Zimbabwe struggles with a GDP of around US$40 billion, Kenya’s economy has surged to over US$200 billion.

The stark contrast is painful and raises uncomfortable but necessary questions.

How did we, a nation once called the “breadbasket of Africa,” regress into an economic basket case while countries we mocked are now leaving us far behind?

The government continues to boast of economic growth figures, with a 2% growth recorded in 2024 and a projection of 6% in 2025.

On paper, that might sound impressive, but as I often remind people, even a 100% growth of nothing is still nothing.

What is 6% growth worth if it is anchored on an economy as small as US$40 billion?

Worse still, the figures themselves are questionable.

Not long ago, ZimStats abruptly revised Zimbabwe’s GDP from US$35.2 billion to US$44.4 billion overnight, raising serious doubts about the reliability of the statistics.

Even if the “revised” figure is accepted, it still pales in comparison to not only Kenya but also other African peers who have forged ahead while we continue to stumble.

So how then do we expect to reach “upper middle-income” status in five years when the evidence of regression is everywhere?

Zimbabwe’s unemployment rate hovers above 90%, with over 80% of the population living in poverty.

The vast majority of people are eking out a living in the informal sector—selling trinkets on the streets, running tiny backyard projects, or operating small corner shops.

Our urban areas, which once boasted reliable municipal services, now depend on community boreholes as entire suburbs go for years without running water.

Power cuts lasting nearly 16 hours a day have become the norm, not the exception.

Rural areas remain almost exactly as they were in 1980, despite being the source of minerals that earn billions for mining corporations.

Those riches are rarely reinvested in local communities.

If the country is genuinely on course to becoming an upper middle-income economy, why are millions of Zimbabweans fleeing to other countries in search of work and a decent standard of living?

Why are university graduates taking up menial jobs abroad while professionals abandon their careers at home for survival in foreign lands?

If the government truly believes poverty is declining, why does it not publish poverty statistics showing progress, and what levels are expected to be achieved by 2030?

The problem with “Vision 2030” is that it is presented without measurable benchmarks.

It is not enough to say that ‘some progress’ is being made or that ‘development’ is visible in certain areas—like drilling a borehole here, opening a small rural clinic there, or installing a few lights in a village school—and then touting these isolated acts as meaningful steps toward achieving Vision 2030.

Progress needs to be measured against clear, transparent, and internationally recognized indicators.

Otherwise, the whole exercise becomes a hollow political slogan, meant to pacify citizens rather than guide meaningful transformation.

Imagine for a moment I need to drive from Kwekwe to Harare and arrive by 10:00 a.m.

I cannot simply set out and hope to arrive on time.

I need milestones along the way to measure my progress.

If I leave at 7:00 a.m., I must pass Kadoma by 7:45, Chegutu soon after, then Selous and Norton, adjusting for traffic delays around Harare; if I miss these milestones, it is clear I will not reach my destination on time.

Or, if I am in Gweru at 8:00 a.m., I immediately know I am heading in the wrong direction.

The journey to 2030 should be treated the same way.

We need clear benchmarks—poverty reduction rates, employment figures, per capita income, industrial productivity, healthcare access, and educational outcomes—to show whether we are on track.

The people of Zimbabwe must also be told exactly what their livelihoods are expected to look like by 2030, not offered vague promises of a ‘prosperous life.’

Without these benchmarks, we are stumbling in the dark, hoping to arrive at a destination we may never reach.

What makes this situation even more tragic is that Zimbabwe was once ahead of countries that are today considered global success stories.

In 1980, at independence, Zimbabwe’s economy was miles ahead of nations like Singapore and Malaysia.

Yet today, Singapore’s GDP stands at around US$507 billion and Malaysia’s at roughly US$488 billion, while we languish at a mere US$40 billion.

Singapore and Malaysia deliberately invested in industrialization, education, infrastructure, and governance, while we squandered opportunities through corruption, mismanagement, and political repression.

This contrast should shame us into action.

But instead, we normalize regression.

We celebrate boreholes in cities where running water once flowed freely.

We clap hands when we are given vending stalls at a flea market and feel special.

We embrace poverty as if it were an achievement.

In the meantime, leaders boast of GDP growth percentages divorced from the reality of daily life.

If Vision 2030 is to mean anything, it must be anchored on honest and measurable benchmarks.

It must demonstrate how unemployment will be reduced from over 90% to sustainable levels by 2030.

This means creating real, meaningful employment—jobs that provide stable income, social security, and opportunities for skills development.

It cannot rely on the fraudulent definitions currently used by the Mnangagwa administration, which count street vendors, backyard projects, and other informal activities as employed.

These do not meet global standards of employment and only serve to mask the true extent of the unemployment crisis in Zimbabwe.

It must outline how poverty will decline from over 80% to something closer to 20–30%, clearly defining what it means to no longer live in poverty.

For instance, a person deemed not to be living in poverty should earn enough to reliably cover basic needs such as food, clothing, shelter, healthcare, and education, while also having the means to save, invest, and participate meaningfully in the economy.

It must show how Zimbabweans will access reliable electricity, clean water, and functional healthcare.

And it must prove that rural communities rich in minerals will no longer be left in medieval poverty while billions are siphoned away.

Until then, “Vision 2030” is nothing more than an empty slogan.

A mirage in the desert of our suffering.

A dream dangled before a desperate people who, five years from now, may still be drinking from boreholes, lighting fires in kitchens, and selling tomatoes on dusty street corners—while the ruling elite continues to congratulate itself on having achieved “upper middle-income status.”

Zimbabweans deserve better.

We must demand clarity, honesty, and measurable benchmarks from those who govern us.

Only then can we know if we are moving toward prosperity—or heading in the wrong direction altogether.

• Tendai Ruben Mbofana is a social justice advocate and writer. Please feel free to WhatsApp or Call: +263715667700 | +263782283975, or email: mbofana.tendairuben73@gmail.com, or visit website: https://mbofanatendairuben.news.blog/