Source: October ZiG inflation plunges 50 percentage points, sparking questions –Newsday Zimbabwe
THE Zimbabwe Gold (ZiG) annual inflation rate for October reportedly fell by 50 percentage points to 32,7%, despite the exchange rate barely moving and consumer prices remaining high, suggesting statistical base effects rather than genuine disinflation.
In September, the ZiG annual inflation rate was 82,7%, marking a fall of 11,1 percentage points from August.
The unusually sharp 50-percentage-point drop in the annual rate, without corresponding currency or policy shifts, has fuelled speculation that the figures reflect statistical base effects or data adjustments rather than genuine disinflation.
This comes as the month of October started with an exchange rate of US$1:ZiG26,6899, which slightly dropped to ZiG26,5087 as of Tuesday.
“The ZiG year-on-year inflation rate (annual percentage change) for the month of October 2025 as measured by the all-items ZiG Consumer Price Index (CPI), was 32,7%,” the Zimbabwe National Statistics Agency (ZimStat) said.
“This means that prices, as measured by the all-items ZiG CPI, increased by an average of 32,7% from October 2024 to October 2025.”
The annual inflation rate also differs from projections by the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, which both expect it to end the year at 89% before decelerating to 18,2% by the end of 2026.
However, the ZimStat figures appear to align more closely with the African Development Bank forecast, which projects an inflation rate of 23,6% in 2025 and 9,6% in 2026.
Further confusion can be seen in the United States dollar-based annual inflation rate for October, which stood at 13%, showing only a small movement from 13,4% in September.
“The USD year-on-year inflation rate (annual percentage change) for the month of October 2025 as measured by the all-items USD Consumer Price Index (CPI), was 13%,” ZimStat said.
“This means that prices as measured by the all items USD CPI, increased by an average of 13% from October 2024 to October 2025.”
Meanwhile, in terms of the month-on-month US inflation rate, this was recorded at 0,3% for the month, gaining 0,3 percentage points on September’s 0%.
“The USD month-on-month food and non-alcoholic beverages inflation rate was 0,2% in October 2025, gaining 0,1 percentage points on the September 2025 rate of 0,1%,” ZimStat said.
“The October 2025 USD month-on-month non-food inflation rate was 0,4%, gaining 0.5 percentage points on the September 2025 rate of -0,1%.”
On the ZiG side, the month-on-month inflation rate was -0,4%, shedding 0,2 percentage points from September, suggesting a decline in prices—a rare outcome in a dollar-scarce economy.
“The ZiG month-on-month food and non-alcoholic beverages inflation rate was 0,7% in October 2025, gaining 0,5 percentage points on the September 2025 rate of 0,2%,” ZimStat said.
“The October 2025 ZiG month-on-month non-food inflation rate was -0,9% shedding 0,4 percentage points on the September 2025 rate of -0,5%.”
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