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The Trump administration’s push to boost critical minerals production by regulating prices is facing skeptical G7 allies and a divided mining industry, with negotiations for a Western trading bloc stumbling over concerns about the plan’s cost and governance, according to diplomatic sources and a Reuters analysis of corporate policy recommendations.

First proposed by U.S. Vice President JD Vance in February, the trading bloc aims to help the West wean itself off China, which became the world’s largest minerals producer by operating at a loss and dampening prices for the building ‌blocks of semiconductors, computer servers, military equipment and myriad other products.

Artificially low prices for cobalt, lithium, nickel and other minerals have made it harder for Western mining rivals to compete, inhibiting new development and driving some companies out of business — a tactic Beijing has used repeatedly in other industries.

The trade bloc, as envisioned, ‌would explore price supports, market standards, subsidies, or guaranteed purchases to encourage and financially underpin production across multiple countries. The measures could be enforced by “adjustable tariffs to uphold pricing integrity,” Vance said at the time.

At present, many niche minerals critical to tech and defense are traded over-the-counter with minimal transparency and linked to Chinese prices, which de facto set the global market due to China’s dominant production.

Since Vance’s announcement, G7 members have ​pushed back against U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer in private negotiations and cooled on the idea of the bloc relying on a price scheme derived from a Pentagon AI model, three sources told Reuters.

Key concerns center around who would pay a premium for minerals, how far down the supply chain those subsidies should go and how governance would work, according to European officials.

The U.S. mining industry is divided on what steps Greer should push allies to support, a disagreement that is clear from more than 230 public submissions sent to Greer’s office by a range of miners, refiners and their customers reviewed by Reuters.

Allied and corporate concerns underscore the complexity of reinventing the way minerals are bought and sold. Yet how and whether the trade bloc ultimately shapes out could influence minerals markets for years to come, more than a dozen analysts and consultants told Reuters.

“It is a very hard thing to do, and I’m happy I’m not the one doing it,” said Ashley Zumwalt-Forbes, a minerals investor who ran the U.S. Department of Energy’s batteries and critical minerals portfolio under former President Joe Biden.

The topic will be a key ‌talking point as G7 members meet this week in France. Western countries face the difficult task of building up a ⁠supply chain from mine to end product all at once to diversify away from China.

The draft U.S. proposal, crafted using an AI pricing program created by the Pentagon’s Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), has been delivered to the White House and the National Security Council and U.S. representatives are expected to brief G7 allies on its contents in the upcoming meeting, according to a U.S. official.

European and industry officials said they want to study the impact of price supports on the medium and long-term rather than commit to quick deals — at odds ⁠with the faster-paced Americans.

The Trump administration, meanwhile, is reluctant to embrace the idea pushed by France of a permanent administrative secretariat within the International Energy Agency (IEA) or OECD to track G7 initiatives on critical minerals as presidencies rotate, the sources added.

Adding to complications, Canada and France — which holds the G7 presidency — want to develop a trading bloc led by the G7 whereas the United States wants to avoid multilateral negotiations and forge fast concrete bilateral deals, and later expand them, three sources familiar with the matter said.

The push for a bilateral approach from Washington appears to indicate a shift in strategy from the plan first outlined by Vance earlier this year.

“What we’re trying to do is take some of these approaches and turn them into an agreement,” Greer told reporters in early June ​at ​the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) ministerial meeting in Paris.

The United States, Greer said, would use price supports “to protect production of critical minerals and derivative products. … We want to phase it in. … If ​other countries want to join us in that, they’re welcome to do that.”

Washington aims to present a proposal for binding bilateral agreements ‌to Japan and the European Union before the end of June, two sources familiar with the matter said. The proposal would be the first concrete step built on action plans announced earlier this year, one with Japan and the other with the EU.

The first binding agreement could extend to five to 10 minerals, the sources said. The minerals under consideration include heavy rare earths, antimony, graphite and tungsten, all subject to Chinese export bans or restrictions.

Price setting

The Trump administration aims to set prices using the U.S. Department of Defense’s Open Price Exploration for National Security (OPEN) AI metals program, which was created by DARPA and aims to calculate what a metal should be priced at when labor, processing and other costs are factored in, while alleged Chinese market manipulation is factored out.

But European allies so far are opposed to the idea of using an AI pricing system developed by Washington, one source said, citing concerns about the U.S. having too much sway over the bloc’s pricing.

Another person added that Europeans want a broad set of tools and “agile governance” around how best to deploy these measures for any given mineral and its value chain.

“For Europe, it would be better to have a price index based on real deals in the European market. The question is whether we can make these opaque pricing mechanisms more transparent, more market-driven, and less prone to manipulation,” Nicola Beer, who oversees minerals financing at the EU-controlled European ‌Investment Bank, told Reuters.

“Different parts of supply chains and products across sectors are shaped by very different pricing mechanisms, which adds to the complexity.”

As a possible alternative to OPEN, an EU-funded agency called ​EIT RawMaterials is working with digital platform Metalshub to create indexes outside Chinese government-led pricing to give foreign investors clearer signals on profitability. The indexes could be broader than Europe and include the United States, Australia, Canada or ​Britain.

Enforcement on any trading bloc could be complicated by the fact that many Western nations import very few minerals in their raw or lightly processed form. Lithium ​carbonate, for example, is not routinely imported to the U.S., though cell phones made from it are.

“There’s a very mixed message coming out of the U.S. right now on battery metals,” said James Willoughby, a metals analyst at the WoodMac consultancy.

Corporate disagreement

In a statement, Greer told Reuters ‌he was using the submissions sent by miners and their clients to “help guide policy for continued negotiations” with Washington’s allies.

The submissions ​show respondents broadly agree that the bloc should focus on niche minerals rather than copper ​or other widely traded metals and that it should also focus on downstream products, including cell phones and laptops.

Yet they disagree on how minerals prices could be regulated, with several prominent companies and mining trade groups recommending against price setting.

“There’s nervousness from all sides about what to do and how different actions could affect different parts of the supply chain,” said Blake Harden, a managing director focused on trade policy at the EY consultancy.

Divergent proposals came from General Motors, which is building North America’s largest lithium mine with Lithium Americas, recycler Umicore, platinum miner Sibanye Stillwater, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, and rare earths company MP Materials — which last ​July became the only company to receive a financial backstop for its rare earths in which Washington funds the company if prices ‌fall below a certain level. Lynas Rare Earths and Serra Verde have received off-takes for part of their rare earths production from the U.S. government at a set price, although they did not receive the financial backstop.

The National Mining Association, the U.S. industry trade group, advised Greer to steer ​away from too much price-fixing and instead focus on tax credits and other incentives.

“While market interventions such as pricing mechanisms may play a role in certain circumstances, incentive-based approaches … are better suited to addressing challenges facing the domestic mining industry,” said Rich Nolan, the trade group’s CEO.

Source: Reuters

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JOHANNESBURG – More than 120 civil society organisations, trade unions, faith-based groups and community movements have united in an unprecedented national campaign aimed at defusing escalating tensions surrounding immigration in South Africa, amid growing fears that anti-immigrant mobilisation could trigger social unrest and economic disruption.

The coalition’s intervention comes as pressure mounts ahead of a widely publicised June 30 ultimatum issued by anti-immigration activists demanding that undocumented foreign nationals leave the country. The campaign, which has gained significant traction on social media and in several urban centres, has heightened concerns among policymakers, business leaders and human rights groups about the potential impact on social cohesion and investor confidence.

According to reports cited by Business Insider Africa, the coalition is seeking to redirect public frustration away from migrants and towards what it describes as deeper structural problems, including unemployment, inequality, weak economic growth and persistent failures in public service delivery.

In a joint statement, the organisations rejected what they called the growing normalisation of xenophobia and vigilante-style immigration enforcement, warning that migrants are increasingly being blamed for problems rooted in long-standing economic and governance challenges.

The coalition argued that foreign nationals have become convenient scapegoats for broader frustrations arising from South Africa’s sluggish economy, which has struggled to generate sufficient jobs despite being the continent’s most industrialised nation.

The intervention comes against the backdrop of unemployment levels that remain among the highest in the world, particularly among young people, while economic growth continues to lag behind emerging market peers.

Several communities in KwaZulu-Natal, Gauteng and the Western Cape have reported heightened anxiety among migrant populations following the circulation of messages calling for undocumented foreigners to leave the country by the end of June.

Community organisations say some foreign nationals have already relocated from areas perceived to be vulnerable to possible unrest, while others have sought temporary accommodation through religious institutions and humanitarian groups.

The issue has also drawn political attention.

The opposition-led Democratic Alliance has called for urgent parliamentary intervention and requested a joint sitting of Parliament’s security cluster committees to address growing concerns surrounding public safety and the rule of law.

DA Chief Whip Advocate Glynnis Breytenbach warned that failure by authorities to respond decisively could create a vacuum in which non-state actors attempt to assume law enforcement functions.

Government officials have repeatedly stressed that immigration enforcement remains the responsibility of state institutions and cannot be delegated to private groups or vigilante movements.

Justice Minister Mamoloko Kubayi has stated that government operations targeting undocumented migration have been intensified across land, sea and air entry points. However, she also cautioned citizens against taking immigration enforcement into their own hands, emphasising that all actions must occur within the framework of the law.

The developments place the Government of National Unity in a delicate position. On one hand, public concerns over illegal immigration have become increasingly prominent in domestic political debates. On the other, South Africa’s post-apartheid foreign policy has historically been rooted in pan-African solidarity and regional integration.

Business leaders are also closely monitoring developments.

Economists warn that prolonged tensions could have implications beyond social stability, potentially affecting tourism, labour mobility, regional trade and investment flows. South Africa serves as a major gateway economy for the continent, attracting workers, entrepreneurs and investors from across Africa.

Any escalation in anti-immigrant sentiment could also complicate broader continental integration efforts under the African Continental Free Trade Area, which seeks to promote the freer movement of goods, services and investment across African borders.

Corporate executives have increasingly highlighted the importance of social stability in sustaining economic growth, particularly as South Africa seeks to attract investment, expand industrial production and address persistently high unemployment.

Analysts note that while immigration remains a politically sensitive issue, long-term solutions are likely to require stronger economic growth, job creation and more effective border management rather than confrontational approaches that risk deepening divisions within society.

As the June 30 deadline approaches, attention is now focused on how authorities, civil society groups and community leaders manage rising tensions in a country where economic hardship and migration have become increasingly intertwined in the national debate.

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JOHANNESBURG – Rising tensions over immigration policy and the treatment of foreign nationals in South Africa are emerging as a potential business risk for some of the country’s largest multinational corporations, whose growth strategies are increasingly tied to markets across the African continent.

For decades, according to Business Insider Africa, South African companies have expanded aggressively beyond their home market, building extensive operations in telecommunications, banking, mining, retail and media. That continental expansion has transformed firms such as MTN Group, Standard Bank Group, Shoprite Holdings, MultiChoice Group and Gold Fields into some of Africa’s most recognisable corporate brands.

However, analysts warn that recent immigration-related disputes could expose these businesses to heightened reputational, regulatory and diplomatic risks in key markets where they derive a growing share of their revenues.

The concerns follow renewed debate surrounding immigration enforcement measures in South Africa, which have attracted criticism from some African governments and civil society groups. While the issue remains largely political, economists say the implications could extend well beyond diplomacy and affect cross-border business relationships.

South Africa’s sluggish economic growth, persistent energy challenges and constrained consumer spending have compelled many leading corporations to pursue growth opportunities elsewhere on the continent. As a result, their financial performance has become increasingly dependent on markets outside South Africa.

For MTN, Africa’s largest mobile network operator by geographic footprint, international operations now account for the bulk of earnings and subscriber growth. Nigeria remains one of the company’s most important markets, while operations across Ghana, Uganda, Rwanda, Cameroon and several other countries continue to drive expansion.

The banking sector reflects a similar trend. Standard Bank has spent years positioning itself as a pan-African financial institution, supporting trade, infrastructure financing and investment flows across more than a dozen African markets. Its long-term growth strategy is closely aligned with the vision of deeper regional economic integration.

Mining companies have also diversified geographically. Gold Fields generates a significant portion of its gold production from Ghana, while several South African mining houses maintain substantial investments across West, Central and Southern Africa.

While regional diversification has reduced dependence on South Africa’s domestic economy, it has simultaneously increased corporate exposure to geopolitical developments and shifts in public sentiment across host countries.

The risks are not merely theoretical. During the xenophobic violence that erupted in South Africa in 2019, South African-linked businesses became targets of protests and retaliatory actions in several African countries, particularly Nigeria. MTN stores and facilities were affected, diplomatic relations came under strain and governments were forced to intervene to prevent further escalation.

Although the current immigration debate differs significantly from the events of 2019, business leaders are closely monitoring developments amid concerns that political tensions could spill over into commercial relationships.

The issue comes at a sensitive moment for Africa’s economic integration agenda. Governments across the continent are investing heavily in the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area, a landmark initiative designed to facilitate the movement of goods, services, investment and capital across African borders.

The success of AfCFTA depends not only on tariff reductions and trade facilitation but also on stronger political cooperation and improved mobility across member states. Analysts argue that persistent disputes surrounding migration and cross-border movement could complicate efforts to build a truly integrated continental market.

For multinational corporations, the stakes are considerable. Any deterioration in bilateral relations between South Africa and other African countries could increase exposure to consumer boycotts, regulatory scrutiny, licensing delays or reputational damage.

Retail chains, insurers, financial institutions, telecommunications operators and mining groups with extensive regional footprints may find themselves navigating increasingly complex political environments alongside traditional business challenges.

Investors are also paying attention. Fund managers note that environmental, social and governance (ESG) considerations increasingly include assessments of political risk, stakeholder relations and social cohesion, particularly for companies operating across multiple jurisdictions.

Economic analysts say the broader lesson is that corporate success in Africa is becoming increasingly dependent on more than financial performance alone.

As African markets become more interconnected, companies must manage relationships with governments, regulators, communities and consumers across diverse political and cultural environments. In that context, migration policy debates that begin as domestic political issues can quickly evolve into material business risks for corporations whose future growth depends on a more integrated Africa.

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TOKYO — Global shares mostly advanced and Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 briefly topped 70,000 for the first time Tuesday before trimming early gains after the Bank of Japan raised its key interest rate to 1%.

The quarter percentage point hike took the benchmark rate to its highest level in three decades.

France’s CAC 40 jumped 0.7% in early trading to 8,446.06, while the German DAX added 0.8% to 25,102.01. Britain’s FTSE 100 surged 0.6% to 10,492.11.

The future for the S&P 500 was nearly unchanged while that for the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged 0.1% higher.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.1% to finish at 69,404.50, while South Korea’s Kospi moved further into record territory, gaining 2.1% to 8,726.60.

In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng slipped 1.4% to 24,493.95, while the Shanghai Composite fell 0.1% to 4,091.89.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was little changed, rising less than 0.1% to 8,917.70.

Taiwan’s Taiex surged 0.9%, while India’s Sensex picked up 0.7%.

On Monday, stock markets rallied worldwide and oil prices eased after the United States and Iran reached a tentative deal to get the global flow of crude going again. The S&P 500 rose 1.7% and the Dow climbed 0.9% to a record. The Nasdaq composite jumped 3.1%.

Brent crude fell 4.8% on expectations that the U.S.-Iran agreement might reopen the Strait of Hormuz, where much of Asia gets its oil supply. But some analysts have urged caution, noting many issues remain uncertain. Negotiations with Iran are expected to continue over the next 60 days. Even after Hormuz reopens on Friday as expected, it will likely take months for the energy industry to get back to full speed.

Oil prices have declined recently on hopes for an extension of the ceasefire in the war, falling from the $100 plus levels they were at a few weeks ago. Before the war, oil was trading at about $70 a barrel.

Early Tuesday, benchmark U.S. crude was down $2.03 at $78.72 a barrel. Brent crude, the international standard, declined $1.82 to $81.35 a barrel.

In currency trading, the U.S. dollar inched down to 160.32 Japanese yen from 160.33 yen. The euro cost $1.1604, up from $1.1594.

Source: AP

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The debate surrounding Constitution Amendment Bill No. 3 (CAB3) has taken a fresh twist, with cash and vehicle donations linked to prominent businessmen and political figures triggering unease within Zanu PF and intensifying allegations of political inducement ahead of a crucial parliamentary vote.

The controversy comes as Parliament prepares to vote on the proposed constitutional amendments, which include provisions that would extend the terms of Parliament and local authorities by two years. Critics argue that the changes form part of a broader push to prolong President Emmerson Mnangagwa’s tenure beyond the current electoral cycle.

At the centre of the storm are businessman Wicknell Chivayo and Presidential Investment Adviser Paul Tungwarara, whose recent high-profile donations have sparked fierce debate both within political circles and among the wider public.

Chivayo recently awarded vehicles and cash to legislators Remigious Matangira and Samantha Mureyani after they publicly supported CAB3 during parliamentary debates.

The donations immediately drew criticism from opposition politicians, civic groups and some Zanu PF members, who questioned the timing of the gifts and their potential impact on the integrity of the legislative process.

The businessman has previously pledged millions of dollars in donations to legislators, although one such proposal was later withdrawn following criticism from senior ruling party officials.

Meanwhile, Tungwarara’s decision to offer a vehicle and financial assistance to political activist Rutendo Matinyarare has also generated controversy.

Matinyarare had emerged as a vocal critic of both President Mnangagwa and CAB3, accusing individuals within government and the ruling party of failing to honour commitments relating to work he claimed to have undertaken in support of Zimbabwe’s international image and anti-sanctions campaigns.

The donation, which followed public exchanges between Tungwarara and Matinyarare on social media, was interpreted by some observers as an attempt to defuse tensions and move a public dispute into private dialogue.

However, the gesture was criticised by some ruling party supporters who argued that it appeared to reward criticism directed at the President.

Former Norton legislator Temba Mliswa has been among the most vocal critics of the donations, warning that gifts made to lawmakers during a constitutional reform process risk undermining public confidence in Parliament.

“Parliament is an institution of the people. It represents the people and provides oversight over the Executive,” Mliswa said.

He argued that legislators should be insulated from any form of influence while discharging their constitutional responsibilities and warned against actions that could create perceptions of impropriety.

Mliswa maintained that constitutional reform should remain an institutional process driven by national interests rather than individual actors.

Responding to the growing controversy, Zanu PF Chief Whip Pupurai Togarepi urged caution, saying many of the allegations were being circulated through social media platforms.

“Should there be anything untoward about the said donations, both the donor and the recipient will be guided on the correct procedure to be followed,” he said.

Legal experts and political analysts have also entered the debate, with some suggesting that the donations reflect broader political and factional dynamics unfolding around the constitutional amendment process.

The controversy comes as Zanu PF prepares to mobilise support for the proposed constitutional changes through a planned “All Citizens Solidarity Rally” in Harare.

The rally, themed *People Have Spoken*, is expected to attract supporters from across the country and is intended to demonstrate public backing for the amendments.

Zanu PF National Political Commissar Munyaradzi Machacha confirmed that the event would proceed, although he said the date was yet to be finalised.

“Insofar as I know, the rally will be held at a later date which will be announced in due course,” he said.

With Parliament expected to make a decisive determination on CAB3 in the coming days, the debate over donations, political influence and constitutional reform is likely to remain at the centre of Zimbabwe’s political discourse.

The controversy has also reinforced concerns among critics that the battle over CAB3 extends beyond legal and constitutional questions and has become a broader contest over power, succession and the future direction of the country’s political system.

Source – newsday

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