Tapiwanashe Mangwiro
Senior Business Reporter
ZIMBABWE’S economy has staged a stronger-than-expected rebound in 2025, the International Monetary Fund has said, with agriculture and mining once again emerging as the decisive pillars of recovery, while inflation continues to ease on the back of exchange rate stability.
An IMF staff mission led by Mr Wojciech Maliszewski was in Harare from October 29 to November 5 as part of its routine engagement with the authorities and domestic policy stakeholders.
At the conclusion of the visit, the IMF said momentum was firmer than previously projected and noted that 2026 was on track for sustained expansion, if fiscal discipline was rigorously tightened.
“The IMF mission held productive discussions with the Zimbabwean authorities on recent economic developments and the 2026 budget framework,” the Fund said.
“Zimbabwe’s economic recovery in 2025 is stronger than previously anticipated, given the rebound in agriculture and solid performances in mining, while inflation has continued to significantly ease, supported by a stable foreign exchange rate. The economy is expected to maintain strong momentum in 2026.”
The Fund emphasised that the Government must ensure that spending in the 2026 Budget aligns with actual dependable revenue and non-inflationary financing.
“Discussions in Harare focused on enhancing fiscal discipline in the 2026 budget framework by aligning expenditures with revenues and available non-inflationary financing sources, while avoiding the accumulation of expenditure arrears,” the IMF said.
The Fund said this will require credible revenue projections supported by concrete policy and administrative tax measures and firmer control of spending to enhance fiscal resilience.
Economist Gladys Shumbambiri-Mutsopotsi said the statement signalled that the Fund recognised the positive data gains, and those gains must now be institutionalised into systems.
“Zimbabwe has clearly benefited from agriculture recovery and relative currency stability this year, and we must now aim to achieve discipline in budgeting so that we take advantage of these gains,” she said.
Economist Tinevimbo Shava added that the IMF tone was cautiously optimistic.
“The IMF is recognising the good,” Mr Shava said. “However, it is also subtly warning that deficits cannot be monetised and that arrears cannot be allowed to pile up.
“In practical terms, it means the Government must say ‘no’ to certain pressures. That is what fiscal discipline looks like in reality,” Mr Shava said.
Investment analyst Gerald Tsodzo said the statement sends a useful signal to global capital that Zimbabwe is back to predictable macro language.
“In investment markets, especially for frontier Africa, perception reacts first to narrative, momentum reacts second, but capital only actually flows after proof of discipline and proof of consistency,” Mr Tsodzo said.
He said asset managers abroad will read the IMF wording as encouraging, but will adopt the wait-and-watch posture until the 2026 budget is actually tabled and implemented.
“Foreign capital wants certainty of currency regime, and certainty of tax treatment,” he said. “The mission statement hints that all these are improving. However, improvement becomes meaningful only when it is sustained across two to three budget cycles, not one.”
The IMF linked all this directly to the requested Staff Monitored Programme.
“In the context of the requested Staff Monitored Programme, IMF staff stand ready to resume discussions upon progress towards addressing key policy issues highlighted in the Article IV consultations,” the Fund said.
In plain terms, Zimbabwe can only move forward into an SMP on the back of evidence that the 2026 budget reflects this discipline.
That alignment matters because the SMP remains the gateway mechanism to debt restructuring, arrears re-engagement and improved ratings.
Analysts say the country is at the edge of a window it has waited years to reopen.
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