Analysis in English on Zimbabwe about Agriculture, Food and Nutrition and Drought; published on 7 Nov 2025 by FEWS NET
Key Messages
- Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to emerge in November across many typical deficit-producing areas in Matabeleland North and South, Masvingo, Midlands and Manicaland provinces, and the far northern parts of the Mashonaland provinces.Own-produced food stocks this year are likely to last longer than typical following the above-average 2025 harvest, driving a delayed onset of the lean season. As households exhaust food from their own production and become market dependent with below-average purchasing power, moderate food consumption deficits will emerge. In early 2026, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to expand in deficit-producing areas and to a few typical surplus-producing areas.
- Seasonal improvements in acute food insecurity are most likely countrywide in April and May 2026 with Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes driven by the 2026 harvest. The forecast average 2025/26 rainfall is expected to support crop and livestock production and income from agricultural labor. The most likely 2026 above-average harvest will mark a second consecutive favorable harvest.
- The areas of highest concern are the worst-off typical deficit-producing areas facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes. Worst-off areas include locations impacted by the poor performance of the 2024/25 rainfall season, which, combined with late planting resulted in a short growing season and poor maturation of crops, reduced crop yields. In the south, excessive rainfall also negatively affected crop production. Typical income sources such as labor, self-employment, petty trade, and remittances are expected to be below typical levels, as is the Mopane worm (Gonimbrasia belina) harvest.
- Food assistance needs are expected to increase through the peak of the January to March 2026 lean season. Overallfood assistance needs are expected to be at near-average levels, though lower than the atypically high El-Niño-induced needs during the last 2024/25 lean season. Thereafter, food assistance needs are expected to declinewith the availability of the 2026 harvest.
The post Zimbabwe – Food Security Outlook: Favorable 2025 harvest drives delays in typical onset of lean season, October 2025 – May 2026 appeared first on Zimbabwe Situation.