Source: Govt rolls out contingency food security plan . . . Probability of El Niño threat lingers – herald
Theseus Shambare
AFTER mapping the impacts of previous low rainfall seasons in the past 46 years, the Government has activated an El Niño preparedness and mitigation plan ahead of the 2026/2027 summer cropping season after forecasts that the adverse weather phenomenon might develop this year.
The authorities are presently rolling out an intensive grain mobilisation programme, irrigation expansion projects and climate-smart agriculture interventions.
The Meteorological Services Department (MSD) and international climate monitoring agencies recently warned that the region could face below-normal rainfall due to the likely development of an El Niño weather phenomenon.
Projections by the United States’ National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), through its Climate Prediction Centre, indicate there is an 82 percent chance of El Niño developing by July and a 96 percent likelihood of it persisting through the 2026/2027 cycle.
Climate experts warn that this could trigger drought, floods and record global temperatures. In a preliminary climate update issued on April 29, the MSD said global climate forecasting models were indicating an 88 percent to 94 percent probability of an El Niño event developing during the 2026/2027 agricultural season.
According to the department, historical weather patterns show that El Niño conditions in Zimbabwe carry a 65 percent likelihood of below-normal rainfall, raising concerns over crop production, livestock conditions and water availability.
Despite the warnings, the MSD cautioned that forecasts issued this early remain subject to uncertainty because of the “spring predictability barrier”, where atmospheric and oceanic conditions can still change significantly before the onset of the rainy season.
The department urged farmers not to panic but to begin adopting climate-resilient farming practices such as moisture conservation, water harvesting and the use of drought-tolerant seed varieties as the Government intensifies preparedness measures ahead of the 2026/2027 farming season.
A report, “Insights into Agricultural Impacts of El Niño from 1980 to 2024”, was presented in a Cabinet meeting on Tuesday.
Permanent Secretary in the Ministry of Agriculture, Mechanisation and Water Resources Development Professor Obert Jiri said the Government was already implementing several interventions to strengthen resilience.
“Historical variability demonstrates that with preparation, information and adaptive practices, many farmers have successfully navigated El Niño seasons,” said Prof Jiri.
Grain mobilisation
Among the key interventions is strengthening of the Strategic Grain Reserve (SGR) through structured grain purchases and expanded storage capacity using newly introduced artificial intelligence (AI)-powered silos.
“Zimbabwe should use the new AI-powered silos for its enhanced Strategic Grain Reserve through purchases from summer cereals and winter wheat production between 2025 and 2027,” said Prof Jiri.
The Government plans to purchase 150 000 tonnes of grain from the 2025/2026 summer cropping season, another 150 000 tonnes from the 2026 winter wheat season and a further 150 000 tonnes from the 2027 wheat season.
“This will give a cumulative 450 000-tonne Strategic Grain Reserve ahead of the drought expected from April 2027 to March 2028,” he said.
Grain mobilisation under the Presidential Inputs Programme, especially through a proposed 10-kilogramme “gratitude collection” initiative targeting an additional 30 000 tonnes for the national reserve, is also being intensified.
The programme is expected to involve Government officials, legislators, councillors and traditional leaders coordinating grain contributions from households at ward level for delivery to nearby Grain Marketing Board depots. At the same time, the Government is accelerating irrigation development under a combined US$120 million investment programme designed to reduce dependence on rain-fed agriculture and climate-proof food production systems.
“The first step is to delink our agricultural production from the vagaries of the weather,” said Prof Jiri.
“We must ensure that our production is not affected by what happens weather-wise. Therefore, irrigation development is the key thrust.”
The Government is targeting the expansion of irrigated cereal production from the current estimated 150 000 hectares (ha) to 350 000ha, a level the authorities say would guarantee food security and enable the country to consistently produce at least two million tonnes of grain annually.
Zimbabwe currently has about 257 000ha under irrigation, although only around 150 000ha are presently suitable for cereal production.
“We now need to move from the 150 000 hectares or so to at least 350 000 hectares, which will assure us of perennial food security in this country,” Prof Jiri said.
A major component of the irrigation expansion strategy is the rehabilitation of 460 irrigation schemes under the MAKA Programme, which is targeting the restoration of about 26 000ha of irrigable land.
The programme is a Government-led irrigation rehabilitation initiative focused on reviving dysfunctional irrigation schemes, improving water delivery systems and expanding irrigated agricultural production, particularly in drought-prone rural communities.
According to the ministry, 331 irrigation schemes have already been rehabilitated, while work continues in all provinces.
Large-scale projects such as the US$51 million Valley Irrigation Scheme in Chiredzi and the US$70 million Munda Wedu irrigation project are also expected to anchor the broader irrigation expansion drive.
The Government is further encouraging commercial farmers to develop irrigation systems around dams in order to maximise utilisation of available water bodies.
Climate-smart agriculture interventions under programmes such as Pfumvudza/Intwasa are also being scaled up.
Additional mitigation measures include strengthening early warning systems, expanding agricultural extension services and enhancing farmer education programmes.
The ministry is also establishing a fully fledged AI-powered groundwater monitoring unit to strengthen water security systems amid growing pressure on dams and boreholes.
Prof Jiri said the interventions were necessary given the increasing frequency and intensity of El Niño events over recent decades.
“The El Niño Southern Oscillation is a significant driver of climatic variability globally and within Southern Africa,” he said.
“During El Niño phases, the northward progression of the Intertropical Convergence Zone is often suppressed and moisture inflow from the Indian Ocean is limited. This can lead to reduced rainfall, particularly during the main agricultural season from November to March.”
Historical impacts
According to the ministry’s assessment, Zimbabwe has experienced nine El Niño and Super El Niño events since 1980, some of which resulted in devastating droughts, crop failures and severe water shortages.
The report shows that maize production has suffered average losses of 51 percent during El Niño years, translating to average economic losses of about US$325 million per season.
During the devastating 1991/1992 drought, maize output declined by 77 percent, while the 2023 El Niño season recorded a 72 percent decline, equivalent to losses exceeding US$607 million.
“In summary, although the reduction in crop volume production appears similar for crops for most El Niño events, it is noteworthy that since the introduction of Pfumvudza/Intwasa in the 2020/2021 season, traditional grain losses have generally been lower than maize,” said Prof Jiri.
The livestock sector has also suffered significant losses during drought periods.
More than one million cattle died during the 1991/1992 drought, while 44 766 cattle perished during the 2023/2024 El Niño season.
Water systems have also been severely affected by recurring drought cycles.
“El Niño-induced droughts between 1980 and 2026 have consistently caused severe water crises in Zimbabwe, leading to the depletion of dams and drying of thousands of boreholes,” added Prof Jiri.
The ministry estimates that more than 12 000 boreholes dried up during the 2015/2016 El Niño event, while 6 028 rural boreholes became dysfunctional during the 2023/2024 drought, leaving about 2,6 million people water-insecure.
The report also noted that Lake Kariba reached its lowest recorded usable storage level of just 0,8 percent in December 2022 following prolonged below-normal rainfall seasons compounded by the 2022-2024 El Niño cycle.
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