HARARE – Zimbabwe’s economy remains on track to achieve its projected 5 percent real GDP growth this year, supported by resilience in mining, a stabilising agricultural sector, and ongoing policy reforms aimed at improving the investment climate, government officials and economists have said.
Finance, Economic Development and Investment Promotion Minister Professor Mthuli Ncube has maintained in the 2026 National Budget Statement that the economy is expected to expand by 5 percent, driven primarily by agriculture recovery, strong mining output and continued reforms aimed at improving the ease of doing business.
He said Government has intensified engagement with emerging multilateral lenders as part of efforts to broaden financing channels for economic development and reduce reliance on traditional funding sources.
Stability Despite Global Volatility
Speaking at the Mid-Term Economic Review and High-Level Policy Dialogue in Harare, organised by Africa Economic Development Strategies (AEDS), board chairman Dr Farai Matanhire said Zimbabwe’s macroeconomic environment is showing signs of consolidation despite significant global uncertainty.
The forum brought together policymakers, private sector executives and development experts to assess first-half economic performance and inform upcoming fiscal and monetary policy reviews.
“Zimbabwe is uniquely exposed to the turbulence of global fragmentation,” Dr Matanhire said. “Escalating trade disputes, shifting alliances and regional conflicts are no longer distant. They translate into real domestic challenges — volatile commodity prices, disrupted supply chains and constrained access to global financial markets.”
Despite these external pressures, he said domestic economic indicators are improving, supported by targeted regulatory interventions and tighter monetary policy management.
Inflation Stability and Reserve Build-Up
According to AEDS, one of the key anchors of current stability is the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe’s tight monetary stance, which has helped ease inflationary pressures and stabilise expectations across the economy.
Year-on-year inflation has reportedly declined to approximately 4,7 percent, placing it within single-digit territory and contributing to improved business planning certainty.
Foreign currency reserves, now estimated at over US$1,5 billion, are also providing what analysts describe as a more predictable macroeconomic buffer for import cover and exchange rate management.
Dr Matanhire said the combination of lower inflation and stronger reserve accumulation is gradually restoring confidence among investors and businesses.
Mining and Structural Reforms Driving Growth
Mining continues to play a dominant role in Zimbabwe’s external earnings, accounting for more than 70 percent of export receipts, with increased global demand for critical minerals such as lithium, gold, platinum group metals and chrome underpinning sector performance.
Policy analysts argue that Zimbabwe’s positioning within global mineral supply chains presents a strategic opportunity, particularly as advanced economies accelerate the transition towards green technologies and electric mobility.
Dr Matanhire said recent domestic reforms have also contributed to improved investor sentiment, including the abolition of selected trading levies, a temporary suspension of certain mining exploration fees, and the rollout of a computerised mining cadastre system designed to improve transparency in mineral rights administration.
He added that the Government’s policy shift towards domestic beneficiation—particularly in lithium processing and mineral concentrate regulations—is beginning to retain more value within the local economy rather than exporting raw materials.
Growth Outlook Depends on Structural Integration
While acknowledging the positive macroeconomic trajectory, AEDS cautioned that sustaining 5 percent growth will require deeper structural reforms to insulate the economy from external shocks.
The think tank emphasised the need for stronger domestic value chains, improved industrial linkages, and enhanced economic diversification beyond extractive industries.
“Together, let us consolidate our economic gains, reinforce confidence, and build a diversified, shock-resistant economy,” Dr Matanhire said.
Economists note that while stability provides a foundation for growth, long-term expansion will depend on productivity gains, investment inflows, and the ability to translate mineral wealth and agricultural output into higher-value industrial production.
As Zimbabwe moves into the second half of the fiscal year, attention is expected to shift towards whether macroeconomic stability can successfully transition into sustained structural transformation and job-creating growth.
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