HARARE – Zimbabwe is projecting a significant cereal surplus of up to 964,945 metric tonnes by March 2027, following a strong recovery in agricultural output during the 2025/2026 summer season, according to a Cabinet report presented this week.
The update, delivered by the Ministry of Agriculture to Cabinet on 21 April, estimates total cereal production at 2.74 million metric tonnes, underpinned by a sharp rebound in maize and a dramatic expansion in oilseed output. The report, based on the Second Round Crop, Livestock and Fisheries Assessment, points to broad-based recovery across key agricultural subsectors.
Strong maize rebound reshapes food security outlook
Maize production, the country’s staple, is projected at 2.35 million metric tonnes. While official comparisons suggest a modest 2% increase from the previous season, revised data from Zimbabwe National Statistics Agency indicates that the 2024/2025 harvest was significantly lower than initially estimated.
Using ZimStat’s corrected figure of 1.82 million tonnes, the current season reflects a 29% increase, marking a substantial recovery from prior drought conditions. Zimbabwe’s maize output has now risen consistently over three seasons—from 635,000 tonnes in the drought-hit 2023/2024 season to the current projection—highlighting improved rainfall patterns and the cumulative impact of conservation farming initiatives such as Pfumvudza/Intwasa.
With annual national consumption estimated between 1.8 and 2 million tonnes, the projected harvest places Zimbabwe firmly in surplus territory. At the upper end, the country could generate close to one million tonnes above domestic requirements, potentially enabling a return to regional grain export markets.
Soyabean output doubles, easing pressure on imports
The most striking development in the report is the surge in soyabean production, which rose by 129% to 96,129 metric tonnes from 41,919 tonnes in the previous season.
The increase is expected to have far-reaching implications for Zimbabwe’s agro-industrial value chain. Soyabeans are a critical input in livestock feed production, particularly for the poultry sector, as well as in vegetable oil processing.
Higher domestic output is likely to reduce reliance on imports of soya meal and crude oil, easing pressure on foreign currency demand while improving cost structures for feed manufacturers and food producers. Industry analysts say the gains could translate into improved margins across agro-processing firms and more competitive pricing in the protein value chain.
The surge also signals the effectiveness of government-led oilseed promotion strategies, including contract farming and pricing incentives aimed at shifting farmers towards higher-value crops.
Industrial crops post steady gains
Beyond grains and oilseeds, Zimbabwe recorded growth in key industrial crops. Cotton production is projected at 77,212 metric tonnes, up 26% from the previous season. The increase comes amid renewed policy focus on reviving the sector, including efforts to stabilise the state-owned Cotton Company of Zimbabwe, which has struggled with financial and operational challenges.
Authorities have prioritised timely payments to farmers as part of broader reforms aimed at restoring confidence and sustaining production growth. Tobacco output, a major foreign currency earner, is expected to reach 378,322 metric tonnes, representing a 7% increase. The crop remains central to Zimbabwe’s export economy, with production levels approaching peaks last seen in the early 2000s.
Macro-economic implications
A strong agricultural season carries significant implications for Zimbabwe’s broader economy. Increased domestic production reduces the need for grain and oilseed imports, easing pressure on foreign currency reserves. At the same time, higher tobacco and cotton output supports export earnings.
Improved rural incomes are also expected to boost demand in sectors such as retail and financial services, while lowering the fiscal burden associated with food imports and subsidies.
Zimbabwe’s growth outlook remains closely tied to agricultural performance, with the International Monetary Fund projecting around 5% GDP growth. Cabinet noted that the agricultural sector is on track to deliver a similar level of expansion.
Sustainability hinges on policy consistency
Despite the strong performance, analysts caution that sustaining momentum will depend on policy consistency, particularly around producer pricing, grain procurement, and input support systems. Cabinet reaffirmed the importance of expanding irrigation infrastructure and scaling up Pfumvudza/Intwasa as core pillars of the country’s food security strategy.
While the current season marks a clear recovery from recent drought shocks, experts note that long-term resilience will depend on maintaining favourable price signals, improving market efficiency, and ensuring timely support to farmers ahead of the 2026/2027 planting season.
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